I te tau 2022, i raro i te papamuri o te utu nui o ngā utu waro mata me te tipu tonu o te kaha whakaputa ā-rohe i roto i te mākete methanol ā-rohe, kua pāngia e te au wiri "W" me te kaha mōrahi neke atu i te 36%. I te titiro whakamua ki te tau 2023, e whakapono ana ngā tāngata o roto o te umanga ka mau tonu te mākete methanol o tēnei tau ki te āhua whānui me te au huringa umanga. Mā te whakatikatika i ngā whanaungatanga tuku me te tono me te whakatikatika i ngā utu rauemi mata, e matapaetia ana ka tipu te tono whakaputa i te wā kotahi, ka pumau, ka pumau hoki te mākete. E whakaatu ana hoki i ngā āhuatanga o te puhoi o te tipu o te kaha whakaputa, ngā huringa o te hanganga kaihoko, me ngā rerekētanga maha i roto i te mākete. I taua wā anō, ko te pānga o te tuku kawemai ki te mākete ā-rohe ka kitea pea i te haurua tuarua o te tau.
Ka puhoi te tere tipu o te kaha
E ai ki ngā tatauranga mai i te Henan Chemical Network, i te tau 2022, ko te kaha whakaputa methanol o tōku whenua he 5.545 miriona tana, ā, ko te kaha whakaputa methanol hou o te ao i arotahi ki Haina. I te mutunga o te tau 2022, ko te kaha whakaputa methanol katoa o tōku whenua he tata ki te 113.06 miriona tana, ko te 59% o te kaha whakaputa katoa o te ao, ā, ko te kaha whakaputa whai hua he tata ki te 100 miriona tana, he pikinga 5.7% ia tau.
I kī a Han Hongwei, te tumuaki tuarua o te Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, i te tau 2023, ka piki tonu te kaha whakaputa methanol o tōku whenua, engari ka puhoi te tere tipu. I te tau 2023, ka tata pea te kaha whakaputa methanol hou o tōku whenua ki te 4.9 miriona tana. I taua wā, ka eke te kaha whakaputa methanol ā-rohe katoa ki te 118 miriona tana, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 4.4%. I tēnei wā, kua tino heke te taputapu waro-ki-methanol hou, nā te whakatairanga i te whāinga "waro takirua" me te utu haumi nui o ngā kaupapa matū waro. Me aro atu hoki ki te aratohu kaupapa here o te mahere "Mahere Tau Rima Tekau mā Whā" e anga atu ana ki te umanga matū waro hou, me ngā huringa o ngā kaupapa here tiaki taiao me te waro.
E ai ki ngā urupare mōhiohio o te mākete, tae noa ki te 29 o Hānuere, kua piki te utu hokohoko matua o te methanol o te kāinga ki te 2,600 yuan (te utu tana, koia anō kei raro), ā, kua piki ake te utu o te tauranga ki te 2,800 yuan, ā, kua eke te pikinga o ia marama ki te 13%. "Tērā pea ka kitea te pānga o te whakarewatanga o te kaha hou ki te mākete i te haurua tuarua o te tau, ā, e matapaetia ana ka haere tonu te pikinga i te raro o te utu methanol i te tīmatanga o te tau," te kī a Han Hongwei.
Ngā huringa hanganga kai
I kī te kaiwhakahaere o te kaupapa Zhongyuan Futures Methanol, nā te ārai me te whakahaere i te mate urutā me te ngoikore o te ōhanga whānui, ka rerekē anō te hanganga whakamahinga methanol ā muri ake nei. I roto i ēnei, ko te tere whanaketanga o te waro -ki-olefins me te whakamahinga o te 55% pea ka puhoi, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki anō te whakamahinga o ngā ahumahi tuku iho i raro iho.
I kī a Cui Huajie, te kaiwhakahaere o te Whakahaere Matū o Henan Ruiyuanxin, kua ngoikore haere ngā hiahia mō ngā olefin mai i te tau 2022, ā, ahakoa kua whakatikatikaina te mākete methanol mata e ngā ohorere, kei te teitei tonu. I raro i ngā utu nui, ka mau tonu te ngaronga o ngā ngaronga mai i te waro-ki-te-olefin puta noa i te tau. Nā tēnei, i whakaatuhia e te whanaketanga o te waro-ki-te-olefin ngā tohu o te puhoi haere. Me te kaupapa whakakotahi matū me te whakamahine nui rawa atu o te tukanga kotahi ā-rohe i te tau 2022 - te whakapai me te whakaputa whānui o Shenghong, ka eke te kaupapa Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) o te methanol ki te 2.4 miriona tana i roto i te ariā. Ka puhoi haere te tere tipu o te tono tūturu mō ngā olefin i runga i te methanol.
E ai ki tētahi kaiwhakahaere o Henan Energy Group, i roto i te taha tuku iho o te methanol, ka whakarewahia he maha o ngā kaupapa waikawa acetic mai i te tau 2020 ki te 2021 i raro i te kukume o ngā hua nui, ā, kua mau tonu te pikinga ā-tau o te kaha whakaputa waikawa acetic o te 1 miriona tana i roto i ngā tau e rua kua pahure ake nei. I te tau 2023, e matapaetia ana ka tāpirihia he 1.2 miriona tana o te waikawa acetic, ā, ka whai ake ko te 260,000 tana o te methane chloride, 180,000 tana o te methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) me te 550,000 tana o te N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). I te nuinga o te wā, kei te piki haere te tipu o te tono o te umanga methanol tuku iho, ā, kei te whakaatuhia anō e te tauira kai methanol ā-rohe he ia whanaketanga kanorau, ā, tera pea ka rerekē te hanganga kai. Heoi, ko ngā mahere whakaputa o ēnei kaha hou i roto i ngā umanga tuku iho ka aro nui ki te haurua tuarua, ki te mutunga rānei o te tau, ka iti te tautoko mō te mākete methanol i te tau 2023.
Kāore e taea te karo i ngā ru o te mākete
E ai ki te hanganga o te tuku me te tono o nāianei, i kī a Shao Huiwen, he kaikōrero matua mō te mākete, kua nui rawa te kaha whakaputa methanol ā-rohe, engari nā te utu nui o ngā rauemi mata methanol, tera pea ka pāngia tonutia, mehemea ka taea te whakamahere i te kaha whakaputa methanol hou i te tau 2023 e ai ki te mahere e ai ki te mahere. Me mātakitaki tonu te whakaputanga, ā, ka arotahi hoki te whakaputanga ki te haurua tuarua o te tau, ka pai mō te hanganga o te mākete methanol i te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2023.
Mai i te tirohanga o te tukanga whakaputa o ngā taputapu methanol hou o tāwāhi, ka arotahi te kaha whakaputa i te haurua tuarua o te tau. Tērā pea ka kitea te pēhanga o te tuku kawemai i te haurua tuarua o te tau. Mēnā ka piki ake te tuku kawemai iti-utu, ka pā tonu te mākete methanol ā-rohe ki te pānga o ngā hua kawemai i te haurua tuarua o te tau.
Hei tāpiritanga, i te tau 2023, kua whakamaheretia te ahumahi tuku iho o te methanol me ngā ahumahi hou ki te whakaputa i ngā waeine hou, ko te kaha hou o te MTO ko te whakaputa whakauru, he mākete piki haere te wahie methanol ma i roto i te mara o te pūngao hou, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te tono methanol, engari tera pea ka puhoi haere te tere tipu. Kei te noho tonu te mākete methanol ā-rohe whānui i roto i te āhua o te nui rawa o te tuku. E matapaetia ana ka piki ake te mākete methanol ā-rohe, kātahi ka pumau i te tau 2023, ā, kāore e taea te whakakore i te āheinga o te whakatikatika i te haurua tuarua o te tau. Heoi, nā te utu nui o te waro mata me te hau māori, he uaua ki te whakapai ake i te mākete methanol i roto i te wā poto, ā, he mea kore e taea te karo i te ohorere whānui.
I kī ngā kaitōrangapū o te umanga, ko te tere tipu ā-tau toharite o te kaha whakaputa methanol i roto i ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei e matapaetia ana kei roto i te awhe papatahi o te 3% ki te 4%. I taua wā anō, me te whakaurunga ahumahi me te whakapai ake i te hangarau, neke atu i te kotahi miriona tana o te taputapu whakauru methanol ki te olefin kei te noho tonu hei taputapu matua, ka noho hei tāpiringa te waro matomato me ētahi atu tukanga hou. Ka whiwhi hoki te methanol ki ngā mea kakara me te methanol ki te penehīni i ngā whai wāhitanga whanaketanga hou me te whānui o te tauine ahumahi, engari ko te taputapu whakauru tautoko-whaiaro kei te noho tonu hei ia whanaketanga matua, ka noho te mana utu ki ngā umanga nui matua, ā, e matapaetia ana ka pai ake te āhuatanga o ngā piki me ngā heke nui i roto i te mākete methanol.
Wā tuku: Hui-tanguru-08-2023