Ka tīmata te tau 2023. Nā te whakapai ake i ngā kaupapa here ārai me te whakahaere i ngā mate urutā, te kaha o ngā mahi hei whakaū i te tipu me te iti o te pānga turanga, e matapaetia ana e ētahi umanga rangahau ka tino piki ake te tipu GDP o Haina i ia tau i tēnei tau. Hei pou o te ōhanga ā-motu, ka hono te umanga matū i ngā rauemi me te pūngao ki runga, ko te taha whakararo he hononga tika ki ngā mea e hiahiatia ana e te iwi. I te tau 2023, me whakaaro te umanga matū ki ngā huringa huringa taonga me te whakawhiti ara, nō reira ko ēhea ngā wāhanga ka noho hei tino kaha te pūtea? Hei whakamātau i ngā kaipānui, ka whakatauhia whānuitia ngā rautaki haumi hinu me te matū a ngā kamupene hea pērā i a Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities me China Merchants Securities.
I roto i te Huihuinga Mahi Ōhanga Matua o nāianei, i mārama te kī me whakapau kaha ki te whakawhānui ake i te hiahia ā-rohe, ā, nā te whakarerekētanga hou o te kaupapa here whakahaere mate urutā kua tere ake te whakaoranga o te mākete kaihoko ā-rohe. I raro i te tumanako whānui, e whakapono ana te maha o ngā kaihokohoko: I te tau 2023, e tumanakohia ana ka hoki mai te hiahia mō ētahi hua matū, ā, ka mau tonu te pakihi nui o te pereti rauemi matū hou e uru ana ki te whakapai ake i te pūngao hou, te rokiroki pūngao, te ahumahi haurua-ira me te hōia. I roto i ēnei, ko ngā rauemi haurua-ira, ngā rauemi photovoltaic, ngā rauemi lithium me ētahi atu he mea tino tika kia arohia e ngā kaipupuri moni.
Ngā rauemi hiko-ā-ringa: whakamahia te whakakapinga ā-whare hei whakateretere i te ahunga whakamua
I te tau 2022, nā te taiao ōhanga o te ao me ngā huringa o te huringa angitu o te umanga me te pānga tonu o te mate urutā, i pāngia te umanga hiko katoa e te pēhanga mahi. Engari i te nuinga o te wā, kei te tipu tonu te umanga haurua-ira o Haina.
I roto i te Pūrongo Rangahau Haumarutanga a Guoxin, i te tau 2021, tata ki te 10% noa iho te tere o te whakaurunga o ngā rauemi haurua-ira i tōku whenua, ā, he ngoikore te kounga me te whakataetae. Heoi, i roto i te wā roa, ka tīmata te umanga hiko whakauru o tōku whenua i te ara o te auahatanga motuhake. E matapaetia ana ka nui ake ngā rauemi me ngā whai wāhitanga mō ngā rauemi me ngā taputapu o roto, ā, e matapaetia ana ka poto ake te huringa rerekē o roto.
I ngā tau tata nei, kua piki haere tonu te hiahia mō ngā tono haurua-ā-ira me ngā mākete kaihoko. I te tau 2021, kua eke te hoko haurua-ā-ira o te ao ki te 555.9 piriona tāra US, he pikinga o te US $45.5 piriona i te tau 2020; e matapaetia ana ka piki tonu i te tau 2022, ā, ka eke te hoko haurua-ā-ira ki te US $601.4 piriona. He maha ngā momo rauemi haurua-ā-ira, ā, ko ngā mea e toru o runga i te mākete ko ngā papa silicon, ngā hau, me te whakakoi mārama. Hei tāpiri, ko te mākete o te wai whakakanapa me ngā papa whakakanapa, ngā matū whakapiripiri, te whakakanapa, ngā matū mākū, me ngā whāinga pupuhi he 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, me te 3.0%.
E whakapono ana te Pūrongo Rangahau Haumarutanga o Guangfa ko te tapahi ki te mara o ngā rauemi haurua-ira (matū hiko) mā te rangahau me te whanaketanga ā-roto, mā te whakawhānui rānei i ngā hanumi me ngā hoko he tauira noa ake mō ngā umanga matū ki te rapu i te panonitanga i ngā tau tata nei. Ahakoa ka taea e ngā kamupene panonitanga angitu te whiwhi uara mākete teitei ake me te whiwhi i tētahi ahumahi tere ake, kua arahihia e tātou he ngaru o te tipu rua. I roto i te ngaru o te whanaketanga tere o te umanga haurua-ira ā-rohe, i arahihia hoki e ngā kamupene rauemi e pā ana he whai wāhitanga pai mō te whakakapinga ā-rohe. Ko ētahi kamupene he kaha R & D me ngā taumata kiritaki angitu, me te panoni me te whakapai ake hua angitu e tumanakohia ana ka tohatoha i te whanaketanga tere o te umanga haurua-ira.
E ai ki te pūrongo a Ping An Securities Research he maha ngā āhuatanga pēnei i te "huringa silicon" me ngā huringa ōhanga whānui, ā, e matapaetia ana ka hinga te umanga haurua-waea i te tau 2023.
E whakapono ana te Pūrongo Rangahau Hokohoko o te Hauāuru mā te pikinga ake o te mana whakahaere kaweake a te US ka tere ake te hoko rauemi haurua-ā-rohe. E tino tumanako ana rātou mō ngā rauemi haurua-ā-rohe, ngā wāhanga me ngā taputapu e pā ana, me te mākete silicon carbide.
Rauemi Whakaahua-Voltainika: Kei te tatari te mākete POE taumata-tekau piriona kia pakaru
I te tau 2022, i raro i te whakatairanga o te kaupapa here a tōku whenua, i tino piki ake te maha o ngā whakaurunga hou i roto i te umanga photovoltaic ā-rohe, ā, i piki ake anō hoki te hiahia mō te kiriata kāpia photovoltaic.
E rua ngā momo rauemi mata o te kiriata piri photovoltaic: te hapori ethylene-ethyl acetate (EVA) me te polyolefin elastomer (POE). Ko te EVA, te rauemi mata matua o nāianei mō te kiriata piri photovoltaic, he nui te whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai, ā, he nui te wāhi hei whakamahi ā-rohe i te heke mai. I taua wā anō, e matapaetia ana ka eke te tono mō te EVA i roto i te mara o te kiriata piri photovoltaic i tōku whenua i te tau 2025 ki te 45.05%.
Ko tētahi atu rauemi mata matua o te POE ka taea te whakamahi ki te photovoltaic, ki ngā motuka, ki ngā taura, ki te pahuka, ki ngā taputapu kāinga me ētahi atu mara. I tēnei wā, ko te kiriata kāpia takai photovoltaic te rohe tono nui rawa atu o te POE. E ai ki te "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", kua piki te ōwehenga mākete o te kiriata kāpia POE ā-rohe me te kiriata kāpia polyethylene pahuka (EPE) i te tau 2021 ki te 23.1%. I ngā tau tata nei, me te pikinga tonu o te putanga o ngā wāhanga photovoltaic i tōku whenua me te urunga tonu o te POE ki roto i te kiriata kāpia photovoltaic, kua piki haere tonu te tono POE ā-rohe.
Heoi, nā te mea he nui ngā arai o te tukanga whakaputa POE, i tēnei wā, kāore i ngā kamupene o roto te kaha ki te whakamahi i te POE, ā, ko ngā kai katoa o te POE i tōku whenua e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā kawemai. Mai i te tau 2017, kua whanake haere tonu ngā umanga o roto i ngā hua POE. E tūmanakohia ana ka whakakapia ā-rohetia te POE e Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry me ētahi atu umanga tūmataiti a muri ake nei.
Ngā rauemi pākahiko lithium: kua piki ake te maha o ngā tukunga o ngā rauemi matua e whā
I te tau 2022, i noho teitei tonu te mākete rokiroki hiko o ngā waka hiko hou me ngā pākahiko lithium o Haina, ā, i tino piki ake ngā tuku rauemi pākahiko lithium. E ai ki ngā raraunga a te Rōpū Motuka o Haina, mai i Hānuere ki Noema 2022, i oti te hanga me te hoko o ngā waka hiko hou ā-rohe i te 6.253 miriona me te 6.067 miriona, ia, he pikinga toharite ia tau, ā, i eke te wahanga mākete ki te 25%.
E matapaetia ana ka hokona e te High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) neke atu i te 6.7 miriona ngā hoko waka pūngao hou ā-rohe i te tau 2022; e matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te 9 miriona te mākete waka pūngao hou o Haina i te tau 2023. I te tau 2022, e matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te 100% te tere tipu o ngā tuku pākahiko lithium o Haina, e matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te 110% te tere tipu o ngā tuku pākahiko hiko, ā, ka neke atu i te 150% te tere tipu o ngā tuku pākahiko lithium rokiroki pūngao. Nā te tipu nui o ngā tuku pākahiko lithium kua akiaki i ngā rauemi matua e whā o te pai, te kino, te diaphragm, te electrolyte, me ētahi atu rauemi pākahiko lithium pērā i te lithium hexfluorophosphate me te pepa parahi ki ngā taumata rerekē.
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga i te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2022, i tukuna e ngā rauemi hiko hiko lithium o Haina he 770,000 tana, he pikinga 62% ia tau; ko ngā tuku rauemi hiko kino he 540,000 tana, he pikinga 68% ia tau; 55%; ko ngā tuku hiko electrolyte he 330,000 tana, he pikinga 63% ia tau. I te nuinga o te wā, i te tau 2022, ko ngā tuku katoa o ngā pākahiko lithium matua e whā i Haina i noho tonu hei ia o te tipu.
E matapaetia ana e te GGII ka nui ake te mākete pākahiko lithium ā-rohe i te 1TWh i te tau 2023. I roto i ēnei, e matapaetia ana ka nui ake te tuku pākahiko hiko i te 800GWh, ā, ka nui ake te tuku pākahiko rokiroki pūngao i te 180GWh, ka piki ake ai te tukunga katoa o ngā pākahiko lithium matua e whā.
Ahakoa i heke ngā utu o te konganuku lithium me te tote lithium i te Hakihea 2022. Heoi, ki ngā kaihoko, ko te pānga o te wā kore-wā te take nui o tēnei, ā, kāore anō kia tae mai te "pūwāhi pikinga" o ngā utu lithium.
E whakapono ana a Huaxi Securities ko te pikinga o te utu o te tote lithium te pikinga noa o te wā tino nui o te umanga, ehara i te "pūwāhi pikinga". E whakapono ana hoki a Shen Wanhongyuan Securities, me te tukunga atu o te kaha whakaputa rauemi mata i te tau 2023, ka haere tonu te ia o te hua o te mekameka mekameka umanga pākahiko lithium mai i runga ki raro. E whakapono ana a Zhejiang Business Securities ko te whakaae iti o ngā rauemi lithium he nui ake i te mea e hiahiatia ana i te haurua tuarua o te tau 2023.
Wā tuku: Hanuere-10-2023