I roto i te horopaki o te huringa hou o te pūtaiao me te hangarau me te aranga ake o te ao whānui mō ngā rauemi, kua iti haere te tuku o ngā kaha hou, engari kei te whānui haere tonu ngā mara e puta mai ana i raro iho. E matapaetia ana ka haere tonu ngā rāngai e pā ana ki a rātou pērā i ngā rauemi fluorine, ngā matū phosphorus, te aramid me ētahi atu ahumahi. E tino tumanako ana hoki ia mō ōna tūmanakohanga whanaketanga.
Te umanga matū fluorine: Kei te whānui haere tonu te wāhi mākete
I te tau 2022, he kanapa te mahi a ngā kamupene kua rārangihia ki te fluorochemical. E ai ki ngā tatauranga kāore anō kia oti, i ngā hauwhā tuatahi e toru, neke atu i te 10 ngā kamupene fluorochemical kua rārangihia i piki ake i ia tau, ā, neke atu i te 6 ngā wā i piki ake ai te hua o ētahi kamupene i ia tau. Mai i te hauhautanga ki te rauemi hou o te fluoride, ki ngā pākahiko lithium pūngao hou, kua whānui haere tonu te mākete o ngā hua matū fluoride me ō rātou painga mahi ahurei.
Ko te pūroiti te rauemi mata matua o mua mō te mekameka ahumahi matū pūroiti. Ko te waikawa pūroiti i hangaia mai i ngā rauemi mata te pūtake o te ahumahi matū pūroiti hou. Hei uho o te mekameka ahumahi matū pūroiti katoa, ko te waikawa pūroiti te rauemi mata matua mō te hanga hua matū pūroiti waenga me te heke iho. Ko ngā ahumahi matua o raro iho ko te hauhautanga.
E ai ki te "Kawa o Montreal", i te tau 2024, ka tio te hanga me te whakamahi i ngā whakatipuranga e toru o ngā hauhautanga i tōku whenua i te taumata turanga. E whakapono ana te Pūrongo Rangahau Pūtea Yangtze, i muri i te whakataetae mō ngā hauhautanga e toru o ngā whakatipuranga, ka hoki pea ngā umanga ki te taumata tuku e aro nui ana ki te mākete. I tio mana te rahinga o ngā hauhautanga e toru o ngā whakatipuranga i te tau 2024, ā, i whakaitihia te rahinga tāpiri o ngā hauhautanga tuarua o ngā whakatipuranga i te tau 2025 mā te 67.5%. E matapaetia ana ka kawea mai he āputa tuku o te 140,000 tana/tau. Mō te tono, kei te mau tonu te kaha o te umanga hoko whenua. I raro i te arotautanga o te aukati me te whakahaere i te mate urutā, ka taea e ngā umanga pēnei i ngā taputapu kāinga te whakaora mārire. E matapaetia ana ka hoki whakamuri ngā whakatipuranga e toru o ngā hauhautanga mai i te raro o te puāwaitanga.
E matapaetia ana e te Haina Pakihi Pakihi Rangahau Institute, me te tere o te whanaketanga o ngā umanga pūngao hou, ngā waka pūngao hou, ngā haurua-ira, ngā hikohiko, me ngā umanga hauora, ka haere tonu te hohonu haere o ngā takawaenga kei roto te fluorine, te monomer fluoride motuhake, te whakamatao fluoride, te momo hou o te kaihopu tinei ahi kei roto te fluorine, me ētahi atu. Kei te haere tonu te whanaketanga o ngā momo hou o te hangarau matū pai kei roto te fluorine. Kei te whānui haere tonu te wāhi mākete o ēnei umanga o raro, ka kawea mai he wāhi tipu hou ki te umanga matū fluoride.
E whakapono ana a China Galaxy Securities me Guosen Securities e matapaetia ana ka piki tonu te tere o te whakaurunga o ngā rauemi matū kounga teitei, me te tumanako anō hoki mō ngā pereti fluorite pēnei i te hauhautanga fluorite.
Te umanga matū whākawa: Kua whānui ake te whānuitanga o te tono o muri mai
I te tau 2022, i pāngia e ngā whakarerekētanga hanganga taha-tuku me te "mana rua" e pau ana te pūngao, he iti te kaha whakaputa o te kaha whakaputa hou o ngā hua matū whākawa, ā, he teitei hoki ngā utu, ka whakatakoto i te turanga mahi mō te rāngai matū whākawa.
Ko te konganuku phosphate te rauemi mata taketake mō te mekameka ahumahi matū phosphate. Ko ngā hua o muri ko te tongi phosphate, te phosphate kai-kounga, te phosphate rino lithium me ētahi atu hua. I roto i ēnei, ko te phosphate rino lithium te wāhanga tino whai hua i roto i te mekameka ahumahi matū phosphate o nāianei.
E mārama ana ko ia 1 tana o te phosphate rino ka puta mai i te 0.5 ~ 0.65 tana, me te 0.8 tana o te phosphate ammonium kotahi. Ko te tipu tere o te tono phosphate rino lithium i te mekameka ahumahi ki te tuku i runga ake ka piki ake te tono mo te konganuku phosphate i roto i te mara o te pūngao hou. I roto i te tukanga whakaputa tuturu, ko te pākahiko phosphate rino lithium 1gWh e hiahia ana ki te 2500 tana o nga rauemi orthopedic phosphate rino lithium, e rite ana ki te 1440 tana o te phosphate (whakapiko, arā, P2O5 = 100%). E kiia ana i te tau 2025, ka eke te tono mo te phosphate rino ki te 1.914 miriona tana, a, ko te tono e rite ana mo te konganuku phosphate ka 1.11 miriona tana, e tata ana ki te 4.2% o te katoa o te tono mo te konganuku phosphate.
E whakapono ana te Pūrongo Rangahau Pūtea a Guosen ka tautoko ngātahi ngā āhuatanga maha-rōpū i te pikinga tonu o te uara o te mekameka ahumahi matū whākawa. Mai i te tirohanga o runga, i roto i te horopaki o te pikinga o te paepae whakauru o te ahumahi ā muri ake nei me te pēhanga nui o te tiaki taiao, ka piki haere tonu te taha tuku, ā, ka kitea ngā āhuatanga o te korenga o ngā rauemi. Kua piki ake ngā utu pūngao taupatupatu ki tāwāhi hei whakatairanga i te utu nui o ngā matū whākawa ki tāwāhi, ā, kua puta te painga utu o ngā umanga ā-rohe e tika ana. Hei tāpiri, ko te raruraru witi o te ao me te huringa uara ahuwhenua ka whakatairanga i te pikinga o te tono mō te tongi whākawa; ko te tipu tere o ngā pākahiko whākawa rino ka whakarato hoki i te pikinga nui o te tono mō te konganuku whākawa.
I kī a Capital Securities ko te pūtake o tētahi huringa hou o te pikinga rauemi o te ao ko te huringa kaha o te whakaputanga, tae atu ki te korenga o te whakapaunga whakapaipai i roto i ngā tau 5-10 kua hipa o ngā rauemi kohuke, tae atu ki te korenga o te whakapaunga whakapaipai i roto i ngā tau 5-10 kua hipa, ā, ka roa te wā e tukuna ai he kaha hou. He uaua ki te whakamama i te taumahatanga o te tau e tukuna ana te konganuku whākawa.
E whakapono ana ngā kamupene pūngao tuwhera kei te piki haere tonu te hua o te ara pūngao hou, ā, kua roa e tumanako ana ki ngā rauemi o runga ake nei pērā i ngā matū whākōkī.
Āramita：Auahatanga hei whakatutuki i tētahi pakihi piki haere
I te tere o te whanaketanga o te umanga mōhiohio, kua piki haere te aro o te mākete whakapaipai ki te aramid.
Ko te muka aramid tētahi o ngā muka mahi-teitei e toru o te ao. Kei roto i te umanga rautaki hou o te motu, ā, he rauemi rautaki-teitei hoki hei tautoko i te motu mō te wā roa. I te marama o Āperira 2022, i whakaaro tahi te Manatū Ahumahi me te Hangarau Mōhiohio me te Komihana Whakawhanake me te Whakahoutanga ā-Motu me whakapai ake te taumata o te hanga muka mahi-teitei me te tautoko i te whakamahinga o te aramid i roto i te mara mahi-teitei.
E rua ngā momo hanganga o te aramid, arā, te aramid me te momo rauemi, ā, ko te mea nui kei raro iho ko ngā ahumahi taura muka muka. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga i te tau 2021, ko te rahi o te mākete aramid o te ao he US $ 3.9 piriona, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ki te US $ 6.3 piriona i te tau 2026, me te tere tipu ā-tau o te 9.7%.
I ngā tau tata nei, kua tere te whanaketanga o te umanga taura muka whatu o Haina, ā, kua eke ki te tūranga tuatahi o te ao. E ai ki ngā tatauranga a te Manatū Ahumahi me te Hangarau Mōhiohio, ko te roa katoa o te raina taura whatu ā-motu i te tau 2021 i eke ki te 54.88 miriona kiromita, ā, ko te tono mō ngā hua aramid rongonui i tata ki te 4,000 tana, ā, 90% o ēnei e whakawhirinaki tonu ana ki ngā kawemai. I te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2022, ko te roa katoa o te raina taura whatu ā-motu i eke ki te 57.91 miriona kiromita, he pikinga 8.2% ia tau.
E whakapono ana a Yangtze Securities, Huaxin Securities, me Guosen Securities, mō te whakamahinga, ka piki haere ngā paerewa o ngā taputapu tiaki-ā-roto i waenganui i te aramid, ā, ka kaha tonu te tono mō te aramid i roto i te ao whakawhitiwhiti kōrero whatu me te rapa. Hei tāpiri, he whānui te tono mākete mō te mākete paninga lithium-electrodermilida. I te tere haere o ngā huarahi kē atu o te aramid i roto i te whare, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te taumata o te whakawhanaungatanga ā-whare i te heke mai, ā, he mea tika kia arohia ngā hea o te rāngai e tika ana.
Wā tuku: Hanuere-10-2023