Ahakoa i uru ngā matū pūngao me ētahi atu taonga ki te wāhanga whakatikatika i te haurua tuarua o te tau 2022, i whakanui tonu ngā kaitātari a Goldman Sachs i roto i te pūrongo hou kāore anō kia rerekē ngā āhuatanga matua e whakatau ana i te pikinga ake o ngā matū pūngao me ētahi atu taonga, ā, ka hua tonu mai he hua pai i te tau e tū mai nei.
I te Tūrei, e matapaetia ana e Jeff Currie, te kaiwhakahaere o Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, rāua ko Samantha Dart, te kaiwhakahaere o te rangahau hau māori, te paearu ine o ngā taonga nui pēnei i te umanga matū. Ko te tikanga ka piki ake pea te S&P GSCI Total Return Index ki te 43% i te tau 2023 i runga i te hokinga mai o te 20% i tēnei tau.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, pūtake: Investing)
GE matapaetia ana e Oldman Sachs tera pea ka pā mai ētahi pikinga ki te mākete i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023 i runga i te horopaki o te puhoi haere o te ōhanga, engari ka piki tonu te tuku hinu me te hau māori.
Haunga te whare rangahau a te kaihoko, kei te whakamahi hoki te whakapaipai i te koura me te hiriwa tūturu hei whakaatu i tōna tumanako mō ngā taonga hokohoko mō te wā roa. E ai ki ngā raraunga i whakangaohia e Bridge Alternative, ko ngā kāreti 15 o runga e aro ana ki te mākete taonga hokohoko i tēnei tau, ko te rahi o ngā rawa i whakahaerehia e te 50% ki te $20.7 piriona.
I whakatau a Goldman Sachs, ki te kore e ranea te pūtea hei waihanga i te kaha whakaputa nui, ka noho tonu ngā taonga ki te korenga o ngā taonga mō te wā roa, ā, ka piki tonu te utu, ka nui haere tonu te rerekētanga.
Mō ngā whāinga motuhake, e matapaetia ana e Goldman Sachs ka piki te utu o te hinu mata, e tata ana ki te $80 te oko i tēnei wā, ki te $105 i te mutunga o te tau 2023; ā, ka piki pea te utu paearu hau māori o Āhia mai i te $33/miriona ki te $53.
I roto i ngā rā tata nei, kua kitea ngā tohu o te whakaoranga i roto i te mākete kaha, ā, kua piki haere te utu o ngā matū.
I te 16 o Tīhema, i roto i ngā hua 110 i aroturukitia e Zhuochuang Information, e 55 ngā hua i piki ake i tēnei huringa, ko te 50.00% tēnei; e 26 ngā hua i mau tonu, ko te 23.64% tēnei; e 29 ngā hua i heke, ko te 26.36%.
Mai i te tirohanga a ngā hua motuhake, ka kitea te whakaora i te PBT, te miro polyester, me te benhypenhydronic.
PBT
Nō nā tata nei, kua piki ake ngā utu mākete PBT, ā, kua hoki mai anō ngā hua. Mai i Tīhema, i tīmata te iti o te ahumahi i te tīmatanga, ā, nā reira i kikī ai ngā taonga o ngā kaihanga, ā, i roto i te BDO i te mahi, ka piki ake te hinengaro mataku ki te tango taonga, ka kikī te tuku taonga o te mākete PBT, ka piki ake te utu, ā, ka huri te hua o te ahumahi.
Te tūtohi ia o te utu kapia parakore PBT i te Rawhiti o Haina
POY
I muri i te "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kua tino heke te hiahia mō ngā miro polyester. Kei te haere tonu ngā kaihanga ki te whakatairanga i ngā hua, ā, kei te heke tonu te arotahi o te tauwhitinga. I te mutunga o Noema, ko te arotahi o te tauwhitinga Poy150D he 6,700 yuan/tana. I te marama o Tīhema, i te mea kua piki haere te hiahia o te taunga, ā, he nui te rere o te moni mō te tauira matua o ngā miro polyester, i hokona e ngā kaihanga i ngā utu iti, ā, i whakaarahia te pūrongo tetahi i muri i tetahi. I āwangawanga ngā kaiwhakamahi o raro kei piki ake te utu o te hoko i ngā wā o muri mai. Kei te piki tonu te āhua o te mākete miro polyester. I waenganui o Tīhema, ko te utu Poy150D he 7075 yuan/tana, he pikinga 5.6% mai i te marama o mua.
PA
Kua tata ki te rua marama te mutunga o te mākete benhynhydr ā-rohe, ā, kua tīmata te mākete ki te tino hekenga o te hokinga mai. Mai i te tīmatanga o tēnei wiki, i pāngia e te hokinga mai o te mākete benhypenichydr, kua pai ake te hua o te umanga benhypenhydrate ā-rohe. I roto i ēnei, ko te hua katoa o te whakaputanga tauira benhypenhydrate tata ko te 132 yuan/tana, he pikinga o te 568 yuan/tana mai i te 8 o Hakihea, ā, ko te hekenga ko te 130.28%. Kua heke te utu o ngā rauemi mata, engari kua pumau te mākete bonalide, ā, kua hoki mai anō, ā, kua rerekē te umanga mai i ngā mate. Ko te hua katoa o te tauira pyrine ko te 190 yuan/tana, he pikinga o te 70 yuan/tana mai i te 8 o Hakihea, ā, he hekenga o te 26.92%. Ko te take nui ko te hokinga mai o te utu o te umanga rauemi mata, i te mea kua piki tere te utu mākete o te benic anhydride, ā, kua whakaitihia ngā mate o te umanga.
He pono, kei reira ētahi kaitātari e whakaaro ana kua iti haere te pānga o te hokinga whakamuri o te ōhanga. I kī a Ed Morse, te tumuaki rangahau taonga i Citigroup, i tēnei wiki noa nei, ko te nekehanga pea o te huarahi o ngā mākete taonga, ā, muri iho ko te hokinga whakamuri o te ōhanga o te ao, ka waiho hei tūmomo mōrearea nui ki te akomanga rawa.
E ai ki a Youliao, kua tata te ata, e tatari ana kia tae ki te mutunga o te tono. I te tau 2013, i pāngia te tono a Haina e te mate urutā, ā, i te mea i pehia haeretia e te pikinga utu teitei te tono ki tāwāhi. Ahakoa e matapaetia ana e te mākete ka puhoi haere te pikinga o te reiti Fed, ka puta haere te pānga ki te ōhanga tūturu, ka arahi atu ki te puhoi haere o te tipu tono. Nā te wetekina o te kaupapa here ārai mate urutā a Haina kua akiaki i te whakaoranga, engari ko te tihi tuatahi o te mate ka waiho tonu hei arai mo te wa poto. Tērā pea ka tīmata te whakaoranga i Haina i te hauwhā tuarua.
Wā tuku: Hakihea-22-2022